Probability Theory

Probability theory is the branch of mathematics concerned with probability. Although there are several different probability interpretations, probability theory treats the concept in a rigorous mathematical manner by expressing it through a set of axioms. Typically these axioms formalise probability in terms of a probability space, which assigns a measure taking values between 0 and 1, termed the probability measure, to a set of outcomes called the sample space. Any specified subset of the sample space is called an event. Central subjects in probability theory include discrete and continuous random variables, probability distributions, and stochastic processes (which provide mathematical abstractions of non-deterministic or uncertain processes or measured quantities that may either be single occurrences or evolve over time in a random fashion). Although it is not possible to perfectly predict random events, much can be said about their behavior. Two major results in probability theory describing such behaviour are the law of large numbers and the central limit theorem.

As a mathematical foundation for statistics, probability theory is essential to many human activities that involve quantitative analysis of data. Methods of probability theory also apply to descriptions of complex systems given only partial knowledge of their state, as in statistical mechanics or sequential estimation. A great discovery of twentieth-century physics was the probabilistic nature of physical phenomena at atomic scales, described in quantum mechanics [Source: Wikipedia]

Prerequisites

Basic understanding of mathematics and computation is all that is required for this course

Getting Started

Schedule

Setup Download files required for the lesson
00:00 1. Probability CheatSheet
00:00 2. Permutations and Combinations what are permutations and combinations
00:00 3. Combinatorics CheatSheet
00:00 4. Statistics
00:00 5. Types of Data
00:00 6. Random Variables and Event Probabilities
00:00 7. Multiple Random Variables and Probability Functions
00:00 8. Expectations and Variance
00:00 9. Joint, Marginal, and Conditional Probabilities
00:00 10. Finite-State Markov Chains
00:00 11. Conjugate Posteriors
00:00 12. Discrete Markov Chains
00:00 13. Continuous Random Variables
00:00 14. Continuous Distributions and Densities
00:00 15. Statistical Inference and Inverse Problems
00:00 16. Rejection Sampling
00:00 17. Conjugate Posteriors
00:00 18. Floating Point Arithmetic
00:00 19. Normal Distribution
00:00 20. Calibration and Sharpness
00:00 21. Markov Chain Monte Carlo Methods
00:00 22. Random Walk Metropolis
00:00 23. Exponential and Poisson Distributions
00:00 24. Conjugate Priors
00:00 25. Typical Sets
00:00 26. 24 Divergence
00:00 27. Exams
00:00 28. Conjugate Posteriors
00:00 29. Entropy
00:00 30. Monitoring Approximate Convergence
00:00 31. Philosophical Prelude
00:00 32. Pseudorandom Number Generators
00:00 Finish

The actual schedule may vary slightly depending on the topics and exercises chosen by the instructor.

Some important external links:

Resources for Probability Theory
Youtube Links